Wow! Prices.

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Brad Christy

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Jun 24, 2002
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Mark

Thanks for setting me straight on why I don't see you at the races. I went to the RCU website and now I know. Nothing like some factual information to learn a lot

Brad I don't get my hair on fire about anything...I'm bald as a billiard ball.

HAGD
Jim,

I'm getting there. The front half, at least.

Thanks. Brad.
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Al Hobbs

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If what I read is accurate, about 20% of the world's grain supply comes from the Ukraine area. It is so dry in the grain producing states that local farmers are saying their production will be down.

There will be a worldwide grain shortage later this year. So, why is the Biden Administration calling for more grain to be used to make gasoline? That will take more grain out of a reduced food supply, forcing food prices even higher.

When we first heard about using ethanol in US gasoline supplies, the argument was that increased gasoline supplies will lead to reduced prices. The reality was that corn, wheat, and barley became more valuable. Grain prices increased to levels tied to the gasoline market. Do you remember when the Mexican people protested about the increased corn tortilla prices?

Ethanol did nothing to reduce gasoline prices. But, it did lead to higher food prices worldwide.

Grain and crude oil are Worldwide commodities. Supply and prices move up and down depending on market supply and demand. In the past 15 months we have decreased US crude oil production and now we will take grain out of the market, when supply is down, to make up for the reduced USA crude oil supply.

The USA will take more food out of the world's grain supply because Washington politicians do not want to increase USA crude oil production.
 

jim hagan

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Oct 24, 2011
Messages
90
I know in the past that the federal government paid farmers to not grow things and wheat was one of those things. I believe this is still done. Perhaps the government should stop paying farmers these subsides. This would save the taxpayers money. It would create jobs. It should reduce government welfare.

I'm sure there is a flaw in this idea but I'll push post anyway

HAGD
 

Gary Parker

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Sep 16, 2021
Messages
87
Hi Brad - the chart just confirms that the price of gas is linked to the price of crude oil and on occasion the price of gas goes up faster or falls slower than the crude oil price.
Unlike most markets, the real problem I see is that the crude oil producers can manipulate their production in response not only to changing demand but to maintain price levels and as a reaction to significant news events around the world. This is exacerbated by even more trading from oil speculators and futures traders who play no real role in the production or distribution of oil but seek only to profit from market uncertainty and the public's overwhelming need for a steady supply of gas.
There are unfortunately plenty of people in the world of all colors, cultures, religous persuasions and political leanings who quite happily profit (sometimes excessively) from this vital energy source. The same type of grifters are already involved in the renewable energy markets but that's a whole different, complicated and equally polarising debate.
Back to messing around with boats.
Cheers
Gary
 

Hydro Junkie

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My father grew up on a farm in southern North Dakota and, upon visiting several decades ago, I learned something I had never heard of. Back in the "dustbowl" days, the farmers would constantly be planting grain in all of their fields to keep them producing. When the soil wouldn't grown anything, the farmers would pack up and move to a new location and do it again. Today, the farmers can't pick up and move when the soil wears out so, to keep the soil fertile, they only use half of their available land each season. After the crop is harvested, the field is left cropless for the next season. When the field is replanted for the third season, it's planted with a different crop to help keep the soil usable. In the case of the farm my father lived on, they had wheat, corn, cattle and, IIRC, barley. To supplement the farm's income, my uncle(who was by this time working the farm by himself) would use his equipment to work the land for others who couldn't afford the larger tractors, plows and other equipment. This would be for a fee that was used to buy fuel and maintain the equipment so the farming would be viable. Since my father is in his late 80s and his "farmer" brother was much older, he's long since retired and might not even be with us any longer. The farm, stock and all of the equipment was sold to one of my cousins so the "family farm" is still in the family, all 2000 acres of it.
Some might be asking "Why are you telling us this?" The answer is actually very simple. Modern farmers have to be as cautious of abusing the soil as possible. If all farmers use only 50% of their usable land each season, it means that they have to grow crops that will produce the most profitable foods possible. It also means they have to be very self-reliant. Unlike those that live in the city that take their car to the shop for the slightest squeak, farmers have to be able to repair their equipment themselves. Paying a mechanic to do the same repairs can make the difference between buying new equipment or not being able to afford to plant a garden
 
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Al Hobbs

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You can't just shut down an oil or gas well. You can't just shut down an oil pipeline. You can stop investing in new production, especially when regulations and permit time constraints become more difficult.

As oil fields become depleted, some wells are capped to maintain production levels in the surrounding area. This may lead to tertiary recovery such as stripper wells or chemical recovery. The producers may use fracking or drill deeper to find other areas of crude oil. Once the area is depleted to a point beyond economical operation, all the wells are capped. But, they cannot just be started up again.

The photos we see of the oil fields in the 1920's are nothing like what there is today. Directional drilling allows one site to actually drill several wells. But, that is not what the anti-petroleum folks want you to see. There has been water flooding and fracking going on for years to maximum crude oil production at the various sites. But, as current wells are depleted, new wells have to come on line to maintain supply.

To maintain consistent crude oil supply to the pipelines and refineries, producers must invest in new crude oil production. And, as in the case of the Bakken, the new oil fields need reliable transportation to the refineries, i.e. a pipeline.

Refineries need to operate at an efficient rate. Reducing through put drives cost up. So, unless a refinery is going into turn around, they do everything to maintain daily volumes. This of course depends on a consistent and reliable crude oil source.

Crude oil is purchased days, weeks and often months in advance. A crude oil field's production is committed, sometimes years in advance.

If a refinery fins that a historical supply is falling behind, they have to find another supply. That is why we are importing so much crude oil. Supply in the USA is falling.

Obviously you can buy crude oil futures, just as people buy grain futures, gold futures, and just about everything else. But, when you buy a crude oil future, there is a day that you have to take delivery. That crude oil is moving and has to be delivered. So, it is possible to make a fortune on futures. It is also possible to lose your ass in futures.

I was involved in buying crude oil futures to guarantee a price for a crude oil volume that would be delivered at a later date. You either smile because you did well, or you explain the loss to upper management.

We went through all this back in the 1970's. Government's reaction was to get involved in market controls. The result was a huge mess, open to many problems that just raised prices to the consumer. Right now the government is trying to control the market again and we will all pay for it.
 

kyleboyer

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Jul 1, 2018
Messages
35
Gary,

Am I reading that chart correctly, in that it is NOT those evil oil companies who are to blame for the excessive gas prices over the last couple months, like a certain Peppermint Psaki would have us believe?

Thanks. Brad.
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That chart gives zero indication of your assumption here. All it really shows is a lead lag relationship between crude oil and gas prices...
 

Brad Christy

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Jun 24, 2002
Messages
1,316
Kyle,

How do you figure? Upon closer examination, what I see is that one line is NOT leading the other, nor do I see any sort of lead lag relationship. What I see is, with a couple exceptions, and without favoritism, both lines doing pretty much the same thing, with utterly random variances in deviance from parallel. What I see are both markets responding, almost in unison, with changes in the supply/demand dynamics. Like they should.

In other words, it's NOT the evil oil companies price gouging. At all.

The myth of oil companies' recent increase in profits is dispelled just as easily as the myth that we are seeing higher wages as a result of stimulus spending. Sure, wages are increasing, but with the diluting of the dollar causing the costs of living to far outpace income gains, it's a net loss. As it always is with demand side stimulus. Same with the oil companies. Sure, they are taking in more absolute dollars, but the diminished value of those dollars negates the increase in profit. A perfect case study in context debunking narrative.

Peppermint Psaki lied to you. Again.

Thanks. Brad.
Titan Racing Components
BlackJack Hydros
Model Machine and Precision LLC
 

Brad Christy

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 24, 2002
Messages
1,316
You can't just shut down an oil or gas well. You can't just shut down an oil pipeline. You can stop investing in new production, especially when regulations and permit time constraints become more difficult.

As oil fields become depleted, some wells are capped to maintain production levels in the surrounding area. This may lead to tertiary recovery such as stripper wells or chemical recovery. The producers may use fracking or drill deeper to find other areas of crude oil. Once the area is depleted to a point beyond economical operation, all the wells are capped. But, they cannot just be started up again.

The photos we see of the oil fields in the 1920's are nothing like what there is today. Directional drilling allows one site to actually drill several wells. But, that is not what the anti-petroleum folks want you to see. There has been water flooding and fracking going on for years to maximum crude oil production at the various sites. But, as current wells are depleted, new wells have to come on line to maintain supply.

To maintain consistent crude oil supply to the pipelines and refineries, producers must invest in new crude oil production. And, as in the case of the Bakken, the new oil fields need reliable transportation to the refineries, i.e. a pipeline.

Refineries need to operate at an efficient rate. Reducing through put drives cost up. So, unless a refinery is going into turn around, they do everything to maintain daily volumes. This of course depends on a consistent and reliable crude oil source.

Crude oil is purchased days, weeks and often months in advance. A crude oil field's production is committed, sometimes years in advance.

If a refinery fins that a historical supply is falling behind, they have to find another supply. That is why we are importing so much crude oil. Supply in the USA is falling.

Obviously you can buy crude oil futures, just as people buy grain futures, gold futures, and just about everything else. But, when you buy a crude oil future, there is a day that you have to take delivery. That crude oil is moving and has to be delivered. So, it is possible to make a fortune on futures. It is also possible to lose your ass in futures.

I was involved in buying crude oil futures to guarantee a price for a crude oil volume that would be delivered at a later date. You either smile because you did well, or you explain the loss to upper management.

We went through all this back in the 1970's. Government's reaction was to get involved in market controls. The result was a huge mess, open to many problems that just raised prices to the consumer. Right now the government is trying to control the market again and we will all pay for it.
Al,

Pretty much every single economic hiccup the US has ever experienced has been the direct result of the government making a mess of things by sticking their dirty green sausages where they have absolutely no business being.

I'm sure this isn't news to you. It is, sadly, to some, though.

Thanks. Brad.
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BlackJack Hydros
Model Machine and Precision LLC
 

Hydro Junkie

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Joined
Oct 2, 2006
Messages
5,398
Al,

Pretty much every single economic hiccup the US has ever experienced has been the direct result of the government making a mess of things by sticking their dirty green sausages where they have absolutely no business being.

I'm sure this isn't news to you. It is, sadly, to some, though.
The problem with it is that they don't put their "dirty green sausages" in to try to help a situation. They do so to gain wealth and power. If there was some way to stop the practice, using some sort of repercussions, it might make a world of difference. Then again, someone would figure out how to avoid those repercussions too, making it a mute point :(
 

Mike Cathey

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Jan 5, 2006
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Well, the best thing about this entire discussion is that we are free to have it. There's too much management of free speech in my opinion, especially on the social media platforms. Probably no matter what these tech companies say it's not about having a discussion, but making money first and then pushing political and social agendas.

But they can go ahead and cancel me all they want, because I don't have social media and never will.
 

Brad Christy

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Joined
Jun 24, 2002
Messages
1,316
Well, the best thing about this entire discussion is that we are free to have it. There's too much management of free speech in my opinion, especially on the social media platforms. Probably no matter what these tech companies say it's not about having a discussion, but making money first and then pushing political and social agendas.

But they can go ahead and cancel me all they want, because I don't have social media and never will.
Mike,

Agreed. I don't InstaGoogleTwitterFace anything.

Go Elon, go!

Thanks. Brad.
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BlackJack Hydros
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timwhalen

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Oct 25, 2015
Messages
934
Mike,

Agreed. I don't InstaGoogleTwitterFace anything.

Go Elon, go!

Thanks. Brad.
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I've been slowly weaning off social media... truly, it's a big problem with what's wrong with America, and the world.
Facebook has been my only involvement in that realm.

TikTok is a Chinese construct and Americans are taking to it in droves, and that's exactly what China wants- distract and indoctrinate an American society that's already drunk on reality evading drama.

Another result is the escalation of narcissism, and ever increasing hybrid forms of personality disorders.
People seem to think they will not be affected by it... in reality, they're only lying to themselves.

The feeding of this sociopolitical divide is intentional- a house divided can not, and will not, stand.

Ultimately, these politicians are, for the larger part, all the same... they do NOT have our best interest at heart. They enrich themselves at our expense.

Welcome to the 'I, Me, Mine' mindset... all birthed out of the great universal spiritual battle between good and evil.

Hope EVERYONE has a great weekend.
 

Don Ferrette

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So, what's going on there?... don't follow news regularly...last I heard was Musk was the largest single share holder, got a seat on the board, gave up seat on board, wanted to buy Twatter out in a take over, but, now what?...

Just can't keep up with all the propaganda and false flags, I guess.
He's attempting hostile takeover, buying Twitter outright @ $54.20 a share or $41 billion. 😁
 

timwhalen

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Messages
934
He's attempting hostile takeover, buying Twitter outright @ $54.20 a share or $41 billion. 😁

Will he pull it off?...seems like he's going to have a fight on his hands with board and stock holders.

Musk's kind of difficult to figure...seems all for free speech, yet is a big proponent of transhumanism.

All I know is the truth's getting harder to find.

This Kimberly Goguen has some interesting things to say about this huge tipping point we seem to be at, as does Dr. Charlie Ward and Dr. Vernon Coleman.


 

Don Ferrette

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Yeah Elon is complicated but the more I read up on him the more I'm liking him (especially now that he's become public enemy #1 of the left for wanting to buy out Twitter). He is a huge supporter of free speech and is very disturbed by our mad rush to AI......
 
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